After blowtorching the Championship Core at the 2021 Trade Deadline, the Cubs still managed to spend a fair chunk of change on a trio of interesting names last winter in free agency in Marcus Stroman, Seiya Suzuki, and Yan Gomes. While none were considered marquee additions, they managed to post a combined Wins Above Replacement (WAR) value of 4.6, per FanGraphs. Their combined salaries for the ’22 season clocked in at $39 million; if market value suggests 1 WAR is worth about $8.5 million, then this collection of players nearly met that expectation to the cent (4.6 * $8.5 = $39.1 M).
So here we have “spending,” we have “intelligence,” and yet… we still have a team that has a long way to go.
Don’t let the second half record hype you up too much: this is still a team that finished 14 games under .500 in an incredibly mediocre division. Turning the page and churning the roster takes time and comes with plenty of bumps and bruises, but in order for the Cubs to take the next step back towards legitimate contention, they need to aggressively supplement their existing talent.
This team has plenty of holes to fill, but thankfully, an apparent willingness (finally) to utilize their vast resources to do so. “Intelligently,” of course.
So let’s all take part in another great American past-time and pretend to spend someone else’s money. Here’s my wishlist for the offseason heading into the 2023 season.
Consistently elite starting pitching on the North Side has been as enigmatic as a Big Foot sighting. Every year, you hear tempered whispers of “close encounters,” and every 15 years or so, you might’ve even had a glimpse of something special with your own eyes (Mark Prior in 2003, Jake Arrieta in 2016). But rub your eyes or glance away for a moment and the illusion vanishes into thin air, making you wonder if you’ll ever see it again.
The point of this clunky metaphor that I should’ve abandoned long ago is that a strong staff is the backbone of any successful franchise, and the Cubs have had as hard a time as anyone piecing that together with any consistency.
Stroman’s addition last season certainly helped, and the vaunted “Pitch Lab” had a hand in intriguing showings from Justin Steele and Hayden Wesneski. But you’d be hard pressed to find anyone defining any of these guys as ace-caliber pitchers at this respective point in their careers. Steele and Wesneski still have plenty to prove, and ideally you’d slot Stroman second or third in your rotation instead of fronting it.
Beyond that trio, question marks abound. Wade Miley won’t be returning, but he was hurt so frequently that you’d be forgiven if you didn’t realize he was on the team in the first place. Drew Smyly dealt with his own share of dings but declined his option with the team after piecing together a respectable season. Kyle Hendricks and Adbert Alzolay suffered through largely lost seasons due to injury and can’t necessarily be pencilled in for any appreciable amount of innings at this point. Keegan Thompson and Javier Assad showed flashes, but long-term, your guess is as good as mine in terms of what their trajectory looks like.
While we lay in wait for the next crop of internal names to bubble through the farm system, the Cubs need to add at least one arm that racks up innings and value at the Major League level to shore up an extremely evident lack of depth.
You can essentially throw out the top two names on the market in Jacob DeGrom and Justin Verlander. While these names make for fun day dreams, there’s more than enough injury risk and mileage on the arms between the two to forgo a deal. Their asking prices will be prohibitive and at this stage of their careers, they don’t match the Cubs competitive timeline. Besides, the time to acquire Justin Verlander came and went in 2017… but I digress.
A tier below these guys, two names stick out in particular: former South-Sider Carlos Rodon, and Japanese ace Kodai Senga. Starting domestically, Rodon more than lived up to his first-round pedigree in his first (and likely only) season with the Giants. The lefty firmly announced his presence in 2021 with a no-hitter in April and an All-Star Game nod, but seemed to run out of gas down the stretch after a shoulder injury in August. Still, the Giants saw plenty of upside in Rodon, who posted a 4.2 WAR in just over 130 innings, and cobbled together a creative deal to bring him West.
They were certainly rewarded in the short-term: Rodon’s 6.2 WAR ranked second among qualified starters in the Majors, while his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and strikeout rate (K/9) both lead the field among qualified starters. Heading into his age-30 season, he triggered his opt-out clause to test free agency again, and will assuredly command more than the $22 million the Giants were scheduled to pay him if he stayed.
As expected, Rodon was hit with a Qualifying Offer of $19.65 million, which he will certainly decline. This means any team signing him will forfeit draft picks, international draft pool money, or both. Unfortunately for the Cubs, signing a player with the QO tag would result in the loss of their second-highest draft pick and $500,000 from their international bonus pool. For a rebuilding club, this is a pretty steep price to pay, and Rodon has plenty of injury concerns of his own to warrant hesitation.
Kodai Senga will also be heading into his age-30 season, and doesn’t come with any QO or posting fee baggage commonly associated with players coming from overseas. But while the transaction would be much cleaner, the projection is as murky as… a Big Foot sighting? Okay I’ll stop trying to make that a thing now.
Senga has dominated the NPB for years now, and this past season posted a sub-2 ERA and a 27.5% strikeout rate. Comparing the level of play between the NPB and MLB isn’t apples to apples, but there’s a track record of transferable pitching success between the leagues. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kenta Maeda, Yu Darvish, and someone named Shohei Ohtani all pop up in my Google search of pitchers who’ve effectively made the leap.
The Cubs have already been linked to Senga, but so has just about half the league; cost-effective pitching is always in short supply. However, the all-around savings on Senga would seem to make more sense for the Cubs than the Hail Mary option in Rodon. This is a perfect example of a high-floor vs high-ceiling comparison. Rodon could be absolutely dynamite but is always one injury away from an albatross contract, while Senga may never reach the same heights but could still be a serviceable mid-rotation piece in a worst-case scenario.
As a fan, I’d obviously be content with either signing, but Senga makes more sense from an “intelligent spending” perspective. He carries less injury risk, a lower price tag, and he already has an existing relationship with Seiya Suzuki, who the Cubs brought over from the NPB last winter. While Rodon could command an AAV of $25 million or more, I’d imagine Senga will command closer to $15 million/year, which is much more palatable for a longer-term contention plan.
The Move: Cubs sign SP Kodai Senga for 4 years, $60 Million
2. One of the “Big Four” Shortstops
This need isn’t a commentary on Nico Hoerner, who turned in a fantastic season at short stop in 2022. This spot on the wish list is more born from Hoerner’s willingness to move around the diamond and the undeniable talent available in free agency.
For the second year in a row, the shortstop market has been loaded with premiere talent. The common thread between the two seasons is Carlos Correa, who’s desired long-term deal never materialized and took what essentially amounted to a one-year/$35.1 million deal with the Twins just before Spring Training.
Joining the 28-year old Correa this season are Dansby Swanson (28 years old), Trea Turner (29), and Xander Bogearts (30). Each player could easily fit into the Cubs plans, because they’re all talented enough to do so. But a few have stronger cases than others.
Let’s start with the biggest fish: Correa. Cheating scandal aside, the dude flat out performs on both sides of the ball. He’s been a bit more injury prone lately, but when healthy, he plays a Gold-Glove caliber short stop while offering 25 homer upside at the plate with decent on-base skills and a postseason pedigree very few players can rival. He essentially set his salary floor at $35 million with his last deal, and while he didn’t meet the qualifications to be tagged with a QO (he was offered one previously), he’ll probably command the highest AAV and total contract value of this quartet of stars.
The Cubs are (rightfully) a bit gun-shy about dishing out 8+ year deals, considering how their last mega-deal with Jason Heyward imploded rather quickly. But league-wide, most front offices are shying away from mega-deals outside of players who are in very rarified air. No disrespect to this entire group, but they’re all fringe contenders for that upper echelon at their very best. To put it differently, there’s a discernible margin between a guy like Mike Trout or Mookie Betts and a guy like Carlos Correa, and that margin can widen with injuries.
I don’t want to say the Cubs are “priced out” on Correa, but if they skimp on contract length, it will vault his annual demands into the $40 million+ territory. I don’t think that fits the definition of “intelligent spending,” and it certainly doesn’t create more financial flexibility moving forward.
Surveying the rest of the field, Trea Turner figures to provide the next-highest value. While he’s definitely not the defensive wizard Correa is, he provides a complete package on offense. He’s long demonstrated his contact ability and elite-level speed on the base paths, but has also greatly improved his in-game power over the past few seasons, making him a bonafide 30 HR/30 SB threat every year.
Turner is an ideal top-of-the-order table-setter, and Nico Hoerner’s glove is good enough for him to stick at short stop if Turner turns out to be better suited defensively for second base (more on Nico in a bit). But Trea’s already been heavily linked to the reigning NL Champion Phillies, and there’s plenty of risk in tying up $30 million+ in a possible second baseman.
Next on the list would be Xander Bogearts, who suddenly seemed to figure out the defensive side of the game that has plagued him throughout his career. But whether he’s a liability in the field or not, the guy just rakes. The five-time Silver Slugger and four-time All Star has been a part of two title runs with the Red Sox and seems to be improving with age. Over the past five seasons, he’s set a 27 homer/101 RBI pace with an OPS+ of 133 (i.e. 33% better than league average). And he’s done this as a short stop, which is not typically the position for a middle-of-the-order type bat.
Just like Correa, Xander has the bat to profile as a third baseman if his defense declines at short stop. Unlike Correa, there’s no track record of proof that his strong showing with the glove last year will last no matter what position he plays. Bogearts also figures to clock in near $30 Million AAV, and is also the oldest of the bunch. Being arguably the weakest defender of the pack at a premium defensive position doesn’t make the most sense for a massive investment, but at least one team will consider the expense justified with his production at the plate. I just don’t think his best fit is with the Cubs given his age and his defensive risk.
So now we get to Dansby Swanson, who’s essentially been treated like window dressing for this star-studded group but might offer the best fit for what the Cubs are doing. It took a few seasons for everything to click, but the former number one overall pick has finally rounded into form on both sides of the ball. While he doesn’t offer Bogaerts-level output at the plate, he’s still posted an OPS+ nearly 10% above league average over the last three seasons. And while he doesn’t offer Correa-level defense at short, he was tied for 6th in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) at short stop last year with nine (in case you were wondering, Nico Hoerner tied for 4th with 11 DRS).
Here again, we essentially have the ceiling vs floor debate. Correa, Turner, and Bogearts all offer greater peak potential, which will match their higher price tags. But Swanson has been above average on offense and defense for a few seasons now, which indicates his ability to maintain that output. Aside from Swanson also receiving a QO, there’s a distinct possibility the Atlanta Braves swoop in to retain him on a long-term deal. Atlanta has been dishing out long-term, team-friendly extensions for the past several years, but haven’t been able to cross that finish line with Swanson yet.
Maybe they’re not sold on him, maybe there’s a lingering issue with his disapproval of the team letting Freddie Freeman walk after they won the World Series in 2021, or maybe it’s something else. But if the Braves hesitate, the Cubs should be in position to take advantage. He might not be the flashiest name, but a middle infield pairing of Swanson and Hoerner would greatly benefit the pitching staff for years to come and they can be counted on to at least hover around league average at the plate. Dansby’s price tag figures to be more palatable as well, with most outlets pegging him around six years/$150 million ($25 million AAV).
The Move: Cubs sign SS Dansby Swanson for six-years, $150 million
3. Stop-gap in Center
Much like starting pitching, center field has been another Big Foot s— I mean, another clear weakness on the team for a number of years now. You can make the argument that outside of Dexter Fowler, the Cubs haven’t had a legitimate every-day center fielder since Rick Monday was traded in 1976. I’m not even entirely joking; the roll call for passable Cubs center fielders is painfully short.
According to Baseball Reference, Monday is the last full-time center fielder to post a WAR higher than 4 since Fowler did so in 2016 (for those of you wondering, Leon Durham had a strong season as an outfielder in 1982 but played more games in right field than center, and never played center field again after that season). That’s 40 seasons between a star-level performance at that position, and another six full seasons since.
Internally, the powers that be have a strong feeling that Pete Crow-Armstrong, last year’s deadline return in the Javy Baez trade, has all the makings of the next great Cubs center fielder. By all accounts, PCA is a defensive savant who floats through the outfield to make nearly every play, and in an encouraging twist, he’s bounced back from a shoulder injury last season with a renewed offensive approach that’s led to better output in the minors.
This is all well and good, but Crow-Armstrong will likely be starting next season in AA and likely won’t be considered for the MLB roster until September of 2024 at the earliest. So the Cubs essentially need a two-year stop-gap in order to stay competitive in the interim. Alexander Canario and Brennen Davis looked to be two intriguing internal candidates to be in the mix to man center on Opening Day, but injuries of various severity have scrapped those plans.
Two candidates have emerged immediately: Kevin Kiermaier and Cody Bellinger. These two provide plenty of upside in a short-term union with the Cubs, albeit for different reasons.
Kiermaier, the sage but oft-injured veteran, just had his $13 million team option declined by the notoriously frugal Tampa Bay Rays. The 33 year old has lost a step and has never contributed much at the plate, but his defensive numbers are still above average. That is, when he’s healthy enough to take the field. Over eight full seasons (not counting 2020), Kiermaier’s averaged only 108 games played and has topped the 130 game threshold only once. Ideally, the Cubs would also like to have either on-base ability or a little pop at the plate from their center fielder, and Kiermaier provides neither. His career .308 On Base Percentage doesn’t make him a top-of-the-order candidate, and he’s never hit more than 15 home runs in any given season.
This is not the “dump on Kevin Kiermaier” section, even though it might sound like it, but more so to provide crucial context. Even as he declines, he still offers good defense and will come in at a price point much lower than his $13 million team option. As a bonus, his brother Dan manages the grounds crew at Wrigley Field, and a family reunion storyline is always fun.
On the other hand, Cody Bellinger is a huge wild-card. As recently as 2019, Bellinger was in the stratosphere of the game’s elites, smoking 47 bombs, displaying defensive versatility, and posting a 7.7 WAR en route at an MVP Award. He was essentially on the Kris Bryant plan, winning Rookie of the Year and MVP in short order while being a key cog in a perennial pennant contender.
Like Bryant, Cody got himself a ring, doing so with the Dodgers in the shortened 2020 season. And, unfortunately worse than Bryant (who’s dealt with plenty of injury problems in his own right), he’s been decimated with injuries that have clearly taken a toll on him mentally.
He was having a down year at the plate in the shortened season anyways, but a shoulder injury suffered during a home run celebration in the NLCS contributed to a full-on implosion in the years that followed. Bellinger looked lost at the plate as he desperately tinkered with his swing mechanics to rekindle some lost magic, but the results were painful: high strikeout rate spiked near 30%, his Isolated Power was nearly cut in half from his MVP heights, and he posted less than 1 WAR in 2021 and 2022 combined.
All things considered, Bellinger’s MVP production sky rocketed his contract value in arbitration, and now in his final year of the process is expected to demand about $16 million for the 2023 season. The Dodgers might look as his prolonged decline in production and decide to cut ties with the expected price tag and look to utilize that money elsewhere.
As with Dansby Swanson, the Cubs should be in prime position to pounce on another unique opportunity here. Even though Bellinger’s bat has faltered, he’s still provided positive value at a premium position with his defense. And anecdotally, Cody seems like the premiere “change of scenery” type of guy. The Cubs (or any other) staff might see something they can correct in his mechanics and approach and unlock 2019 Cody again, and if that happens, you have the bargain of a lifetime.
In either scenario, you’re shoring up a position of weakness with a more than capable glove, and in Bellinger’s case, there’s also substantial upside at the plate. I think a short term contract offer to either guy would be pretty creative, loaded with incentives and options to mitigate risk for all parties involved.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see either guy land a one-year “prove-it” type deal for around $8 million with a bunch of incentives and various options for the second year. The details would be drastically different for either player, but the base of the deal would likely be similar.
The Move: Cubs sign Kevin Kiermaier (or Cody Bellinger) for one-year, $8 million (plus options)
4. Replacing Contreras’ Output
Apparently Willson Contreras didn’t even register on the “Intelligence Meter,” even after three trips to the All Star Game and a continued, loudly expressed desire to stay in Chicago for his entire career. Signing Yan Gomes to relieve some of the defensive burden from Contreras did wonders for his already strong bat, as he registered an .815 OPS and set career-highs with a 132 WRC+ and 3.3 WAR.
In my humble opinion, the narrative around his defensive shortcomings has gotten out of hand. He’s definitely not the greatest defensive catcher in the Majors, but he has a huge arm and a ton of passion that naturally attracts people to his style of play. Many teams in the Majors are erring towards pure defense and pitching staff management at the catcher position, so this isn’t a uniquely Cubs characteristic. But for as good of a player and teammate Willson appears to be, he seems to be getting shunned out of the respect he deserves simply by having a skillset that’s currently out of vogue.
At any rate, with a minuscule chance that Contreras and the Cubs find common ground after he already rejected the Qualifying Offer, the Cubs essentially have to search for two players just to replace his production. They’ll need to find another catcher to pair with Gomes behind the plate, and they’re also going to have to find the 20-25 homers and all of the other trappings of Contreras’ work at the plate which will no longer be there.
There’s an outside chance they can fill the catcher void internally, with former top-prospect Miguel Amaya expected to be in some version of game-shape come spring after dealing with a litany of injuries. But even though Amaya is praised for his defense, he hasn’t played much over the past three seasons and has never seen a pitch above the AA Level yet. Outside of that, PJ Higgins can be retained on a minimum contract, but I have a hard time seeing a legitimately competitive team riding with a PJ Higgins-type getting regular reps.
If the Cubs go full-defense mode behind the plate, Tucker Barnhart strikes me as an ideal free agent candidate. He’s a two-time Gold Glover behind the dish, universally lauded for how he hands a pitching staff, and he can also provide a tiny bit at the plate as a switch hitter. Still just 31 years old, he likely won’t command more than a few million on a short-term deal.
Defense-first catcher options abound outside of just Barnhart, but the bigger question is how you go about filling the gap left on offense. The hope is (at least) half of that production can be filled up by Matt Mervis, who had a banner year at three levels of the minors this past year and has improved at every stop along the way.
Mervis, a 24-year old lefty first-baseman, was a relatively unheralded prospect in the Cubs system until he posted an OPS over 1.000 in about 30 games at High-A South Bend. He kept bashing in AA to the tune of 14 homers and a .301 average in just over 50 games, which gave him the green light to Triple A Iowa to finish the season. He ended stronger than he started, hitting for the same power and slashing his strikeout rate all while playing against better competition. The Cubs wanted an extended look at him in the Arizona Fall League, and all he did there was hit six more home runs in 17 games while taking home Fall Star Game MVP honors.
Mervis checks a lot of boxes for the Cubs: he’s a lefty with power, both components that the team was sorely lacking last year, has a good eye at the plate, has youth on his side, and already has an elite nickname (Mash). It’s never wise… eh hem, I mean, “intelligent”… to count your chickens before they hatch when it comes to prospects. But if Mervis continues to perform the way he has been, he has a real shot to break camp as an Opening Day Starter at 1B or DH and greatly accelerate the Cubs competitive timeline.
The Cubs will likely look externally to fill in the rest of the void left by Contreras and offer some insurance for Mervis should he scuffle at all, which are both reasons why they’ve been linked to former MVP Jose Abreu for a few weeks now. Several reports suggest Abreu and the White Sox have all but formally decided to part ways as he enters free agency, and the Cubs could use the veteran’s presence for more than just his bat.
He’s been a model of consistency by sporting an OPS+ north of 130 for his entire nine-year career and went Super Saiyan in the COVID-shortened 2020 season en route to an MVP Award, but Abreu would also offer a veteran leadership presence that hasn’t been there since the 2021 Deadline Sale-a-thon. Players and coaches have vouched for Abreu’s leadership presence, and in his age-36 season, would be able to serve in a mentor role to an incredibly youthful roster.
As his career winds down, Abreu will probably look to cash in on one last sizable contract, somewhere in the ballpark of two years with an AAV around $20 million.
The Move(s): Cubs sign 1B/DH Jose Abreu for 2 years, $45 million with a third year option
5. Extending Nico Hoerner (and Ian Happ?)
The final point on this list has to deal with the two home grown talents that took major steps forward in 2022 in Hoerner and Happ. Hoerner, now 25, proved to be a worth defender when asked to take on full time short stop responsibilities and cut his strikeout rate from years past to deliver a 4 WAR season. And Happ, 29, finally put it all together, heading into his final arbitration year with a Gold Glove Award and All Star Game nod under his belt, as well as a refined approach at the plate.
Depending on who you believe, Happ was shopped around a bit at last year’s trading deadline, obviously without a deal coming to fruition. The common belief at the time was that the upper minors were so loaded with outfield talent, and with Happ having a strong first half, it would be better to trade him for a prospect haul instead of negotiating an extension. After bursting on the prospect scene in 2021, Brennen Davis was all but presumed to take Happ’s spot should he get moved at the deadline.
But best laid plans rarely come to fruition: Davis has had a series of nondescript back injuries that have cost him a disproportionate amount of time and could start to sour some people on his future outlook. Alexander Canario had a minor league season that rivaled Matt Mervis but suffered a freak accident playing Winter Ball in the Dominican Republic that will take him out of roster consideration for at least a year. With Pete Crow-Armstrong already more than a year away and others even further behind, the outfield surplus became a lot more obscure in a hurry.
With Happ still in his prime, it would make more sense now to explore an extension with him. Even though he’s not a prototypical power-hitting left fielder, he can hit his share of homers. The thing that set him apart this year was his ability to mitigate the wild fluctuations between hot and cold streaks, as well as his improved ability to hit high fastballs. A shorter swing sapped some power but translated to a lower strikeout rate and a higher Batting Average on Balls in Play, indicating harder contact.
Having a positional home also stabilized things for Happ, as prior experiments to use him as a center fielder proved to be ineffective. He can fake a few innings there in a pinch, but he doesn’t have the speed or get the jumps to be an above-average center fielder. In a less pressurized defensive position like Left Field, he’s clearly excelling with a more defined expectation. Plus, he's my Dad's favorite player so that has to count for something, right?
I think the Cubs would be wise to at least explore extension talks with Happ to see if they can retain him on slightly team-friendly terms. If he’s willing to sign for an AAV slightly below $20 million, I think you take that bargain. This way you’re not pegging your future production on a handful of injured or unknown prospects but rather a known commodity who’s show a propensity to improve all facets of their game.
While an extension with Happ would be a wise move to explore, extending Hoerner would qualify as more urgent. Unlike with outfielders, the Cubs aren’t overwhelmed with middle infield depth in the minors. I wouldn’t even say they’re “whelmed” with middle infield depth in the minors. Not only does Nico pride himself on his ability to hone his craft, he’s also more than willing to do any and everything to help the team win ballgames. As mentioned in the dialog about the short stop market, if the team believes they’re better off with him at second base, he’s all for it and has no ego to get in the way of that vision. I’m pretty sure he’d try to pitch if they asked him to.
Hoerner has the youth and intangibles of a building block that you’d like to retain for the long term, and I don’t anticipate it will take a bank-breaking value to buy out a few of his free agency years. I wonder if a five year, $42 million deal would get the job done, or if I’m underselling him. His arbitration estimate for this season is $3 million, and added from there ($3/$6/$9 to cover three arb years and $12 each for two free agent years). That would bring his AAV to $8.4 over the life of that contract, which would provide great cost-certainty at second base for the team.
The Move: Cubs extend Nico Hoerner for five years, $42 million
To recap, here’s how much of the Rickett’s money I spent today:
- SP Kodai Senga: 4 years, $60 M ($15 AAV)
- SS Dansby Swanson: 6 years, $150 M ($25 AAV)
- CF Kevin Kiermaier/Cody Bellinger: 1 year+, $8 M ($8 AAV)
- 1B/DH Jose Abreu: 2 years+, $45 M ($22.5 AAV)
- 2B Nico Hoerner (extension): 5 years, $42 M ($8.4 AAV)
- Total: $305 M Spent, $79 M AAV
Even after arbitration estimates for 2023, the Cubs should have over $100 million to play with between the payroll and the Competitive Balance Tax. A $79 million addition to payroll is certainly substantial but more than doable, especially considering at least $40 million more will come off the books after the 2023 season (Jason Heyward, Kyle Hendricks option).
If the Cubs continue to spend “intelligently” and infuse the roster with surplus value from free agency and internally, they’ll maintain the financial flexibility that they crave to continually supplement the Major League club and compete sooner rather than later. And once they’re competitive again, I can really have a field day spending the Ricketts’ money.